A contentious neighbour

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China is undoubtedly the most powerful state in the Asia-Pacific region. Its economy and defence budget dwarf those of its neighbours.

Yet it faces obstacles if it wants to become a leader. The region is extraordinarily diverse. China, for example, shares territorial borders with 14 states, and it has about four sea borders as well. A number of those territorial borders are actually in dispute. For instance, the difficulties between China and India are well known. Indeed, the memory of the 1962 Sino-Indian Border War lingers, and the border has still not been fully demarcated.

China also has other border disputes. Currently, debates surrounding the South China Sea are particularly prominent. There, several actors claim sovereignty over the islands and reefs in the region. Of course, China claims sovereign control over all the features in the South China Sea.

China’s border relations

Several important, middle-range states surround China. It needs to consider these relations very seriously if it wants to play a leadership role in the region. This is true not only of India, but also of Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the ASEAN block. After all, the ASEAN block includes the powerful state of Indonesia.

Furthermore, countries throughout the region have visions for how they wish to live. For instance, they desire to retain policy autonomy. Admittedly, however, China is their leading trading partner. It is also a leading partner in terms of the public goods it’s provided, such as those through the Belt and Road Initiative. Nevertheless, this doesn't imply that ASEAN countries share all of China's interests and beliefs. Such issues must be negotiated.

Another Pacific power

It's also vital to remember that the United States remains a significant presence in the Asia-Pacific region. While the United States is an important economic actor, there is a particular demand for the security it provides. The United States often describes itself as a Pacific power, so it doesn’t view itself as an external interloper, although China may disagree.

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Nevertheless, countries in the region regard the United States as an important actor. For many decades, it has policed the sea lines of communication. Furthermore, it has crucial alliance relationships in the region with Japan and South Korea, as well as with the Philippines and Thailand.

Historically, those alliance relationships were established in the Cold War. However, they have become part of the security framework for the region. As the Cold War came to an end, these alliances developed new assets and new forms of interaction. As such, they are essential to the stability of the Asia-Pacific region alongside other mechanisms, such as the multilateral organisations focused on economic and security issues. Overall, the area is complicated for China to dominate.

China’s growing influence

A power transition is taking place in the region. This transition is placing China as the leading power; however, it's important to remember that this transition is distinct from the notion of an order transition.

The movement from one to the other is very bumpy, and there’s nothing linear about the matter. In other words, the ability of China to dominate doesn't imply that it has the authority to lead in the region. If there is an attempt to dominate via coercion, there will, of course, be a degree of followership. Yet this followership will not be willing, and there will be constant resistance. Furthermore, there will be a search for outside actors to step in and provide alternative ways of organising foreign policy.

Indeed, dominance is a very demanding form of leadership. A far better form of leadership is to generate authority based on consent. This requires a vision of regional order that appeals to the states and peoples within. An actor like China can achieve this by considering the objectives and security perspectives of others. Indeed, China may benefit by reassuring its neighbours as the power dynamic shifts.

American hegemony

Another influential factor is the American hegemony. Since the post-Cold War era, elites have recognised the United States as an essentially benign hegemon. This is surprising given past instances of US aggression such as the Vietnam War and the Korean War.

Regardless, throughout the post-Cold War era, the United States was able to develop an identity as a benign hegemon. This is mainly due to, I believe, the public goods that it's provided. The US has protected the sea lines of communication and acted as a leading investment partner in Southeast Asia. It has also been a stalwart alliance partner, particularly for South Korea and Japan. Just as importantly, it has no territorial objectives of its own.

Moreover, as China-US relations have become more complicated and begin to deteriorate, this notion of supporting a benign hegemon in the region has become more attractive. However, countries in the region don’t want to choose between the two superpowers; they want to maintain productive relations with both.

Nevertheless, there are concerns. China wishes to see the United States expunged from the region. This is particularly true of its military presence. As such, ASEAN countries believe these tensions will limit their ability to pursue their foreign policy interests moving forward.

Shifting global order

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China, as a growing economic power, has grown in influence and wishes to lead in the Asia-Pacific region. Yet several other states are also powerful. These states have grown in power over the same period as China. As such, the Asia-Pacific region is increasingly seen as the centre of the world economy. As the states of the area become more interdependent, they also feel less reliant on other parts of the world in terms of their economic prosperity and their political alignment.

At the moment, the region has not yet reduced its attachment to the global system. One of the things that's important about this region is its supply chains. These production chains connect it in many ways with external actors. That's a compelling global link, and I think it won't be easy to disentangle.

Is conflict coming?

Naturally, countries worldwide recognise that it's essential to be involved in the region. Due to the impact of globalisation, it's evident that most countries want to participate in the most dynamic part of the world economy. In comparison to Latin America or elsewhere, until relatively recently the Asia-Pacific region has been extraordinarily stable. There has been no interstate war since 1979.

Unfortunately, there is a growing fear that conflict may arise as the China-US relationship continues to deteriorate. Therefore, the notion of the Asia-Pacific region attracting interest from outside is tinged with a certain amount of dismay. The orderly nature of the area is being challenged as a result of the rapid power transition that is taking place.

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How China is affecting Asia

Foot, R. (2020). China’s rise and US hegemony: Renegotiating hegemonic order in East Asia? International Politics, 57(2), 150–165.

Goh. E. (2013). The Struggle for Order: Hegemony, Hierarchy, and Transition in Post-Cold War East Asia. Oxford University Press

Shambaugh, D. (2021). Where Great Powers Meet: America and China in Southeast Asia. Oxford University Press.

China's growing influence in the Asia-Pacific region